kenya Election Watch: Raila-Uhuru neck to neck. What Could Change the Game?

Raila and Uhuru now running neck to neck. The two that many still belive the the status qou but only a generation gap standing between them. Uhuru is the son of the Kenya’s freedom fighter and first president; Jomo Kenyatta. Raila a son to Jaramogi Ajuma Oginga Odinga; a Luo Chieftain who became a prominent figure in Kenya’s struggle for independence and later served as Kenya’s first Vice-President, and thereafter as opposition leader. The two families have since dominated Kenyan politics to-date. Both have amassed wealth with Uhuru currently believed to be the richest man in Kenya.

At the start of the Campaign, Raila was largely seen as the undisputed contender and the best bet to win, as Uhuru who is still having to battle in tow fronts; Kenyan presidential campaign and the ICC battle.

Against expectations, Uhuru seems to be gaining momentum, with multiple defections into his favor. Polls now suggest a neck to neck contest.

So, what Could Break the Raila – Uhuru poll tie? The Sunday Nation Headline screamed yesterday.

Below are some of the factors noted;

With the latest voter surveys showing a close contest, a high voter turn out in candidates strong holds on March 4 and un-wavering support in swing counties are among the key factors that could determine the outcome of Kenya’s most eagerly awaited elections.

Factors that might Change the game:

Percentage of voter turnout for each candidate.
Performance in battle ground counties.
How well other candidate perform.
Closing arguments in the final presidential Media debate slated for today.
Mobilisation for final rallies.
Surprise elements.

Swing Counties to Watch;

Nairobi County

Mombasa

Makuini

Kakamega

West Pokot

Busia

Bungoma

Homa Bay

Kitui

Kisii

Siaya

Kiambu

Machakos and Othaya Constituency.ImageImage

What else do you think could swing the votes?

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